NIT Bracketology: Monday, 3/5

Please note that the following only accounts for games through Sunday, March 4th.FOR MORE CURRENT NIT BRACKETOLOGY, CLICK HERE.

All automatic bids are marked with an asterisk. All automatic bids that are locked in (already lost their conference tournament) are marked with two asterisks.

Order of 1-seeds is as follows: Alabama, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette. The winner of the Alabama region will play the winner of the Marquette region in the NIT Final Four.

Alabama Region

(1) Alabama vs. (8) Florida Gulf Coast**
(4) LSU vs. (5) South Dakota State*
(3) Mississippi State vs. (6) College of Charleston*
(2) Utah vs. (7) UC Davis*

Marquette Region

(1) Marquette vs. (8) Southeastern Louisiana*
(4) Maryland vs. (5) Oregon
(3) Oklahoma State vs. (6) South Carolina
(2) Boise State vs. (7) Montana*

Louisville Region

(1) Louisville vs. (8) Hampton*
(4) Western Kentucky vs. (5) Georgia
(3) Penn State vs. (6) Old Dominion
(2) Nebraska vs. (7) Northern Kentucky**

Syracuse Region

(1) Syracuse vs. (8) Harvard*
(4) Temple vs. (5) Washington
(3) Buffalo* vs. (6) Rider**
(2) Notre Dame vs. (7) UNC Asheville**

First Four Out

Northeastern
Stanford
St. John’s
UCF

On Radar, below NIT

Tulsa
BYU
San Diego State
Boston College
Belmont
Davidson
East Tennessee State
Wisconsin
Colorado
Wyoming
Fresno State
Indiana

On Radar, in NCAA

St. Bonaventure
Texas
Kansas State
UCLA
USC
Providence
Arizona State
Baylor

Methodology

This is a prediction of the bracket the NIT Selection Committee will build. It leans towards the status quo, however, in that it only partially considers future results.

I account for bid thieves when determining where to draw the cut line between at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. To determine automatic bids, I first determine the most probable number of automatic bids, and then fill those with the most likely teams to earn them.

Some changes from previous brackets are due to my own further evaluation of teams, in addition to new data (games that have happened since the last bracket was produced).

I’m unsure of whether Arkansas Pine Bluff will be given an automatic bid in the event they lose in the SWAC Tournament (Arkansas Pine Bluff was the regular season runner up in the SWAC, with Grambling State winning the title; Grambling State is ineligible for the postseason). I’m operating under the assumption that they won’t, given the wording of the NIT Selection Process procedural documents.

2 thoughts on “NIT Bracketology: Monday, 3/5

    1. Hard to say. They have a really weak RPI, but the predictive models like them well enough. IU fans should cheer for the favorites in conference tournaments this week (to minimize the number of automatic bids) and hope the committee weighs the predictive models over the strength of resumes.

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