NIT Bracketology: Tuesday, 3/6

Please note that the following NIT Bracketology only accounts for games through Monday, March 5th. FOR MORE CURRENT NIT BRACKETOLOGY, CLICK HERE.

All automatic bids are marked with an asterisk. All automatic bids that are locked in (already lost their conference tournament) are marked with two asterisks.

Order of 1-seeds is as follows: Baylor, Alabama, Syracuse, Louisville. The winner of the Baylor region will play the winner of the Louisville region in the NIT Final Four.

Editor’s Note: A previous version of this piece left out the Alabama Region. Our apologies for any confusion this may have caused.

Baylor Region

(1) Baylor vs. (8) Southeastern Louisiana*
(4) Maryland vs. (5) Georgia
(3) Oklahoma State vs. (6) South Dakota State*
(2) Boise State vs. (7) Montana*

Louisville Region

(1) Louisville vs. (8) Hampton*
(4) Western Kentucky vs. (5) LSU
(3) Notre Dame vs. (6) South Carolina
(2) Nebraska vs. (7) Northern Kentucky**

Syracuse Region

(1) Syracuse vs. (8) Harvard*
(4) Penn State vs. (5) Washington
(3) Buffalo* vs. (6) Rider**
(2) Marquette vs. (7) UNC Asheville**

Alabama Region

(1) Alabama vs. (8) Florida Gulf Coast**
(4) Temple vs. (5) Oregon
(3) Mississippi State vs. (6) Old Dominion
(2) Utah vs. (7) UC Davis*

First Four Out

BYU
Northeastern
St. John’s
UCF

On Radar, below NIT

Stanford
San Diego State
Tulsa
Boston College
Belmont
Davidson
East Tennessee State
Wyoming
Colorado
Wisconsin
Fresno State
Indiana

On Radar, in NCAA

St. Bonaventure
Texas
Kansas State
UCLA
USC
Providence
St. Mary’s
Arizona State

Methodology

This is a prediction of the bracket the NIT Selection Committee will build. It leans towards the status quo, however, in that it only partially considers future results.

I account for bid thieves when determining where to draw the cut line between at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. To determine automatic bids, I first determine the most probable number of automatic bids, and then fill those with the most likely teams to earn them.

Some changes from previous brackets are due to my own further evaluation of teams, in addition to new data (games that have happened since the last bracket was produced).

I’m unsure of whether Arkansas Pine Bluff will be given an automatic bid in the event they lose in the SWAC Tournament (Arkansas Pine Bluff was the regular season runner up in the SWAC, with Grambling State winning the title; Grambling State is ineligible for the postseason). I’m operating under the assumption that they won’t, given the wording of the NIT Selection Process procedural documents.

I include so many teams in my “On Radar” sections because there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding this projection. This is the first year I’ve done NIT Bracketology, so apologies if I’m woefully incorrect and this misleads you about the fate of your favorite team.

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2 thoughts on “NIT Bracketology: Tuesday, 3/6

  1. Based on BPI, Davidson should be in the NCAA tournament let alone the NIT. KenPom would have them getting a home game in the NIT. Even by RPI they are ahead of a handful of these at large teams. Regardless, I appreciate you taking the time to make the projection.

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    1. That’s all correct—and they’ve moved into my First Four Out as of this morning. All those bad losses (Appalachian State, Hawaii, Richmond x2, Dayton) are what’s holding them back, but they definitely have a shot. Davidson fans should be cheering for teams like UC Davis to win their conference tournaments and open up at-large space in the NIT. Thanks for reading!

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