NIT Bracketology: Friday, 3/9

Please note that the following NIT Bracketology only accounts for games through Thursday, March 8th. FOR MORE CURRENT NIT BRACKETOLOGY, CLICK HERE.

All automatic bids are marked with an asterisk. All automatic bids that are locked in (already lost their conference tournament) are marked with two asterisks. Middle Tennessee State gets three asterisks, because it lost its conference tournament but it might still avoid the NIT—congratulations on all your asterisks, Blue Raiders!

Order of 1-seeds is as follows: Middle Tennessee State, Baylor, Arizona State, Oklahoma State. The winner of the Middle Tennessee State region plays the winner of the Oklahoma State region in the Final Four.

Middle Tennessee State Region

(1) Middle Tennessee State*** vs. (8) UNC Asheville**
(4) Western Kentucky vs. (5) LSU
(3) Penn State vs. (6) South Carolina
(2) Syracuse vs. (7) Rider**

Oklahoma State Region

(1) Oklahoma State vs. (8) Southeastern Louisiana*
(4) Maryland vs. (5) Old Dominion
(3) Boise State vs. (6) BYU
(2) Marquette vs. (7) Northern Kentucky**

Arizona State Region

(1) Arizona State vs. (8) Wagner**
(4) Oregon vs. (5) Temple
(3) Utah vs. (6) Montana*
(2) Nebraska vs. (7) UC Davis*

Baylor Region

(1) Baylor vs. (8) Florida Gulf Coast**
(4) Georgia vs. (5) Louisiana Lafayette*
(3) Mississippi State vs. (6) Boston College
(2) Notre Dame vs. (7) Harvard*

First Four Out

San Diego State (note: I expect Old Dominion or Western Kentucky to win the Conference USA Tournament, in which case San Diego State would move into the field).
Washington
St. John’s
Davidson

On Radar, below NIT

UCF
Northeastern
Stanford
Tulsa
Belmont
Wisconsin
Colorado
Indiana
South Dakota
East Tennessee State

On Radar, in NCAA

St. Bonaventure
Oklahoma
Texas
Kansas State
UCLA
St. Mary’s
USC
Providence
Alabama
Louisville

Methodology

This is a prediction of the bracket the NIT Selection Committee will build. It leans towards the status quo, however, in that it only partially considers future results.

I account for bid thieves when determining where to draw the cut line between at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament and the NIT. To determine automatic bids, I first determine the most probable number of automatic bids, and then fill those with the most likely teams to earn them.

Some changes from previous brackets are due to my own further evaluation of teams, in addition to new data (games that have happened since the last bracket was produced).

I’m unsure of whether Arkansas Pine Bluff will be given an automatic bid in the event they lose in the SWAC Tournament (Arkansas Pine Bluff was the regular season runner up in the SWAC, with Grambling State winning the title; Grambling State is ineligible for the postseason). I’m operating under the assumption that they won’t, given the wording of the NIT Selection Process procedural documents.

I include so many teams in my “On Radar” sections because there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding this projection. This is the first year I’ve done NIT Bracketology, so apologies if I’m woefully incorrect and this misleads you about the fate of your favorite team.